{
 "provenance": {
  "source": "IPEDS Completions (C{year}_A), revised files where present",
  "unit": "(UNITID, CIP2020, AWLEVEL), first majors, CTOTALT>0",
  "taxonomy": "all years normalized to CIP2020 via NCES Crosswalk2010to2020",
  "years": [
   2013,
   2014,
   2015,
   2016,
   2017,
   2018,
   2019,
   2020,
   2021,
   2022,
   2023
  ],
  "derived": "web_derive.py, 2026-08-23",
  "death_rule": {
   "definition": "absent in all observed later years",
   "min_trailing_years": 2,
   "institution_must_still_report": true
  },
  "cohort_rule": "Cohort = programs conferring in 2013. Stopped = no awards observed in any of 2021, 2022, or 2023.",
  "departure_rule": "An institution counts as still reporting if it appears in the panel in any of 2021-2023; otherwise it left the panel."
 },
 "headline": {
  "cohort": 169578,
  "stopped": 48073,
  "rate": 0.2834860654094281,
  "ci": [
   0.2813458792247129,
   0.28563606113416573
  ],
  "net_change": 1759,
  "total_2013": 169578,
  "total_2021": 171337,
  "span": [
   2013,
   2021
  ]
 },
 "totals_by_year": [
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "live": 169578
  },
  {
   "year": 2014,
   "live": 171288
  },
  {
   "year": 2015,
   "live": 171878
  },
  {
   "year": 2016,
   "live": 171380
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "live": 171898
  },
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "live": 171926
  },
  {
   "year": 2019,
   "live": 170176
  },
  {
   "year": 2020,
   "live": 170534
  },
  {
   "year": 2021,
   "live": 171337
  }
 ],
 "flows_by_year": [
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "born": 0,
   "died": 6095
  },
  {
   "year": 2014,
   "born": 19116,
   "died": 5975
  },
  {
   "year": 2015,
   "born": 13143,
   "died": 5849
  },
  {
   "year": 2016,
   "born": 10387,
   "died": 6137
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "born": 9469,
   "died": 6216
  },
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "born": 9332,
   "died": 6735
  },
  {
   "year": 2019,
   "born": 8509,
   "died": 8611
  },
  {
   "year": 2020,
   "born": 10334,
   "died": 8210
  },
  {
   "year": 2021,
   "born": 8450,
   "died": 9946
  }
 ],
 "survival_curve": [
  {
   "year": 2014,
   "stopped": 9440,
   "still": 160138,
   "rate": 0.05566759839130076,
   "ci": [
    0.054586352948761664,
    0.05676897508536909
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2015,
   "stopped": 16411,
   "still": 153167,
   "rate": 0.09677552512708017,
   "ci": [
    0.09537745842470004,
    0.09819186061493941
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2016,
   "stopped": 22211,
   "still": 147367,
   "rate": 0.13097807498614206,
   "ci": [
    0.12938065122298584,
    0.13259221792882547
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "stopped": 27294,
   "still": 142284,
   "rate": 0.16095248204366133,
   "ci": [
    0.15921107041417326,
    0.1627092548100812
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "stopped": 32559,
   "still": 137019,
   "rate": 0.19200014152779252,
   "ci": [
    0.190132444475984,
    0.1938817930483713
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2019,
   "stopped": 38229,
   "still": 131349,
   "rate": 0.22543608251070305,
   "ci": [
    0.2234534209975048,
    0.2274311836192669
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2020,
   "stopped": 43718,
   "still": 125860,
   "rate": 0.2578046680583566,
   "ci": [
    0.255728194492415,
    0.25989211470465173
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2021,
   "stopped": 48073,
   "still": 121505,
   "rate": 0.2834860654094281,
   "ci": [
    0.2813458792247129,
    0.28563606113416573
   ]
  }
 ],
 "decomposition": {
  "at_reporting": 33249,
  "at_departed": 14824,
  "institutions_2013": 7176,
  "institutions_2021": 5871
 },
 "robustness": [
  {
   "label": "Count everything",
   "note": "All 10 stable award levels, every institution",
   "base": 169578,
   "stopped": 48073,
   "rate": 0.2834860654094281
  },
  {
   "label": "Only degrees",
   "note": "Associate's and above; certificates excluded",
   "base": 142383,
   "stopped": 34890,
   "rate": 0.2450432987084132
  },
  {
   "label": "Only bachelor's and above",
   "note": "Bachelor's, master's, doctorates",
   "base": 104070,
   "stopped": 21526,
   "rate": 0.2068415489574325
  },
  {
   "label": "Only schools still reporting",
   "note": "Programs at institutions that left IPEDS excluded",
   "base": 154754,
   "stopped": 33249,
   "rate": 0.2148506662186438
  },
  {
   "label": "Still filed, kept in the base",
   "note": "The 13,348 disputed rows counted as programs that did not stop",
   "base": 169578,
   "stopped": 34725,
   "rate": 0.20477302480274565
  },
  {
   "label": "Still filed, out of the base",
   "note": "The 13,348 disputed rows dropped from numerator and denominator alike",
   "base": 156230,
   "stopped": 34725,
   "rate": 0.2222684503616463
  }
 ],
 "still_filed": {
  "stopped_still_filed": 13348,
  "share_of_stopped": 0.2777,
  "institutions": 2383,
  "screened_stopped": 34725,
  "kept_in_base": {
   "base": 169578,
   "rate": 0.20477302480274565
  },
  "out_of_base": {
   "base": 156230,
   "rate": 0.2222684503616463
  },
  "spread_points": 1.75,
  "rule": "A row the institution filed with IPEDS in 2021, 2022 or 2023, including rows filed with zero completers. panel.py requires at least one completion, so such a row reads identically to gone.",
  "readings": "One screen, two scorings. The numerator is the same either way. The two rungs differ only in whether the disputed rows stay in the denominator as programs that did not stop, or leave it as unresolved.",
  "not_composable_with_resumption": "809 of resumption.py's 2,226 expected resumptions fall inside these rows, and still-filed rows resume at 6.1 percent against 4.1 for the rest. The two corrections overlap and must not be applied in sequence as if independent. The only correct order is to screen first, then apply the curve to the survivors alone. The result of doing so is deliberately not published here: a third adjusted headline invites exactly the compounding this note exists to prevent."
 },
 "gap_stats": {
  "gap_and_return": 56745,
  "panel_programs": 279674,
  "share": 0.20289694429943433
 },
 "institution_stats": {
  "qualifying": 2834,
  "min_base": 10,
  "median_loss_rate": 0.214,
  "share_losing_any": 0.9824,
  "histogram": [
   122,
   283,
   421,
   453,
   398,
   314,
   258,
   165,
   127,
   80,
   72,
   31,
   31,
   19,
   18,
   10,
   13,
   5,
   12,
   2
  ],
  "hist_bins": 20
 },
 "corroboration": {
  "independent_2013_2018": 0.204,
  "this_pipeline_2013_2018": 0.192
 },
 "wrong_method": {
  "summed_deaths": 63774,
  "cohort_deaths": 48073
 },
 "trap2": {
  "lvl01_2013": 18380,
  "lvl01_2019": 21254,
  "lvl20_2020": 2080,
  "lvl21_2020": 19594,
  "share01_min": 0.0978,
  "share01_max": 0.111
 },
 "crosswalk": {
  "new": 544,
  "moved": 149,
  "deleted": 12
 },
 "sectors": [
  {
   "code": "3",
   "label": "Private for-profit, 4-year or above",
   "base": 9840,
   "stopped": 7587,
   "rate": 0.7710365853658536,
   "open_base": 3628,
   "open_stopped": 1375,
   "open_rate": 0.3789966923925028,
   "institutions": 735,
   "institutions_open": 245,
   "institution_loss": 0.6666666666666667
  },
  {
   "code": "6",
   "label": "Private for-profit, 2-year",
   "base": 5285,
   "stopped": 4040,
   "rate": 0.7644276253547777,
   "open_base": 2317,
   "open_stopped": 1072,
   "open_rate": 0.46266724212343546,
   "institutions": 1025,
   "institutions_open": 526,
   "institution_loss": 0.4868292682926829
  },
  {
   "code": "8",
   "label": "Private nonprofit, less than 2-year",
   "base": 184,
   "stopped": 129,
   "rate": 0.7010869565217391,
   "open_base": 94,
   "open_stopped": 39,
   "open_rate": 0.4148936170212766,
   "institutions": 80,
   "institutions_open": 40,
   "institution_loss": 0.5
  },
  {
   "code": "9",
   "label": "Private for-profit, less than 2-year",
   "base": 2624,
   "stopped": 1487,
   "rate": 0.5666920731707317,
   "open_base": 1399,
   "open_stopped": 262,
   "open_rate": 0.18727662616154395,
   "institutions": 1508,
   "institutions_open": 878,
   "institution_loss": 0.4177718832891246
  },
  {
   "code": "7",
   "label": "Public, less than 2-year",
   "base": 1166,
   "stopped": 626,
   "rate": 0.5368782161234992,
   "open_base": 922,
   "open_stopped": 382,
   "open_rate": 0.41431670281995664,
   "institutions": 243,
   "institutions_open": 187,
   "institution_loss": 0.2304526748971193
  },
  {
   "code": "5",
   "label": "Private nonprofit, 2-year",
   "base": 581,
   "stopped": 286,
   "rate": 0.49225473321858865,
   "open_base": 466,
   "open_stopped": 171,
   "open_rate": 0.3669527896995708,
   "institutions": 166,
   "institutions_open": 130,
   "institution_loss": 0.2168674698795181
  },
  {
   "code": "4",
   "label": "Public, 2-year",
   "base": 38224,
   "stopped": 10702,
   "rate": 0.2799811636668062,
   "open_base": 37281,
   "open_stopped": 9759,
   "open_rate": 0.26176872937957674,
   "institutions": 1039,
   "institutions_open": 1002,
   "institution_loss": 0.03561116458132818
  },
  {
   "code": "2",
   "label": "Private nonprofit, 4-year or above",
   "base": 53361,
   "stopped": 13395,
   "rate": 0.2510260302468095,
   "open_base": 51005,
   "open_stopped": 11039,
   "open_rate": 0.21642976178806,
   "institutions": 1672,
   "institutions_open": 1487,
   "institution_loss": 0.1106459330143541
  },
  {
   "code": "1",
   "label": "Public, 4-year or above",
   "base": 58313,
   "stopped": 9821,
   "rate": 0.16841870594893077,
   "open_base": 57642,
   "open_stopped": 9150,
   "open_rate": 0.15873841990215468,
   "institutions": 708,
   "institutions_open": 687,
   "institution_loss": 0.029661016949152574
  }
 ],
 "resumption": {
  "estimator": "leave-future-out backtest: decision years 2016-2020, 3-year lookahead, 2013 cohort, no institution filter, minimum 3 years of silence",
  "min_gap": 3,
  "max_g": 7,
  "lookahead": 3,
  "by_gap": [
   {
    "g": 3,
    "at_risk": 37707,
    "resumed": 4125,
    "rate": 0.10939613334394144,
    "ci": [
     0.10628526897203995,
     0.11258657927650194
    ]
   },
   {
    "g": 4,
    "at_risk": 29965,
    "resumed": 2175,
    "rate": 0.07258468212915067,
    "ci": [
     0.06970144088060552,
     0.0755775010989203
    ]
   },
   {
    "g": 5,
    "at_risk": 23672,
    "resumed": 1230,
    "rate": 0.051960121662723895,
    "ci": [
     0.04920471647659336,
     0.054860923158366874
    ]
   },
   {
    "g": 6,
    "at_risk": 17175,
    "resumed": 688,
    "rate": 0.04005822416302766,
    "ci": [
     0.03722684645576957,
     0.04309530984142803
    ]
   },
   {
    "g": 7,
    "at_risk": 9742,
    "resumed": 302,
    "rate": 0.030999794703346337,
    "ci": [
     0.027738677630339634,
     0.034630651253478875
    ]
   }
  ],
  "by_award": [
   {
    "code": "06",
    "at_risk": 4483,
    "resumed": 501,
    "rate": 0.11175552085656926,
    "ci": [
     0.10286288587678034,
     0.12131297983686551
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "17",
    "at_risk": 2662,
    "resumed": 270,
    "rate": 0.10142749812171299,
    "ci": [
     0.09052724592095462,
     0.1134764728296268
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "08",
    "at_risk": 2427,
    "resumed": 229,
    "rate": 0.09435517099299547,
    "ci": [
     0.08335767212279623,
     0.1066347979748029
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "05",
    "at_risk": 32164,
    "resumed": 2818,
    "rate": 0.08761348091033454,
    "ci": [
     0.08457261083604455,
     0.09075284836417731
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "07",
    "at_risk": 14991,
    "resumed": 1237,
    "rate": 0.08251617637249016,
    "ci": [
     0.07821776827512444,
     0.08702849881448592
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "18",
    "at_risk": 438,
    "resumed": 32,
    "rate": 0.0730593607305936,
    "ci": [
     0.052223761349463556,
     0.10131904675190129
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "02",
    "at_risk": 25334,
    "resumed": 1541,
    "rate": 0.0608273466487724,
    "ci": [
     0.05795015733478662,
     0.06383770639548472
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "03",
    "at_risk": 33353,
    "resumed": 1789,
    "rate": 0.05363835337151081,
    "ci": [
     0.051271359988233026,
     0.05610815882088587
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "04",
    "at_risk": 2229,
    "resumed": 96,
    "rate": 0.04306864064602961,
    "ci": [
     0.035397474752639664,
     0.05231210572095954
    ]
   },
   {
    "code": "19",
    "at_risk": 180,
    "resumed": 7,
    "rate": 0.03888888888888889,
    "ci": [
     0.01896305054751551,
     0.07808571317081592
    ]
   }
  ],
  "gap_distribution": {
   "3": 4355,
   "4": 5489,
   "5": 5670,
   "6": 5265,
   "7": 5083,
   "8": 5800,
   "9": 6971,
   "10": 9440
  },
  "expected_resumptions": 2226,
  "expected_share_of_stopped": 0.0463,
  "adjusted": {
   "stopped": 45847,
   "cohort": 169578,
   "rate": 0.270357
  },
  "limitation": "A program contributes one observation per qualifying decision year, so observations are not independent. This is a pooled hazard estimate."
 },
 "drilldown": {
  "schools_with_rows": 5742,
  "schools_none": 1434,
  "named": 11893,
  "classes": {
   "NAMED": 11893,
   "RECODED": 100,
   "LEVEL_SHIFT": 0,
   "INTERMITTENT": 8123,
   "STILL_CONFERRING": 27957
  },
  "final_year_graduates": 662076,
  "cohort_year_graduates": 866265
 }
}